Not on what lens to buy funnily enough, but rather where. I've already decided on the Tokina 11-16mm and the Nikon 18-200mm.

The choice is getting them here (N Ireland) or in China.

Problem here it I'll probably won't get to test drive the Tokina as no one seems to have it in stock or they don't sell it I've heard issues about quality control, back focusing and softness with this lens so I'd rather try it out for myself. Probaby also need to borrow one of the shop;s camera's as my D60 won't autofocus with this lens. The Nikon not so much, and I can get as good a price from shops as the internet.
UK, Tokina: ~£490, Nikon: £550

Buying in China: Much cheaper, but warranty issues. Nikon especially dont issue international warranties and I'm a bit fuzzy about Tokina. Can't trust what the sales people say as they will swear the sky is full of hamsters on crack to get a sale. But I can most likely try out the Tokina in the shop.
Price wise it also cheaper: Tokina 3800yuan (~£380), and 5000 for the Nikon(~£500) with the current exchange rate.

So, I open the floor to discussions by those wiser than my humble self :/ How likely is a lens to break? (provided I don't chuck it into a wall)

As you're only saving £50 on the Nikon lens, I would say it wasn't worth the extra risk. Bear in mind that in addition, if you have it shipped from China, you will probably have to pay import duty when it gets to the UK which will only add to the cost. That is unless you find a dealer who agrees to list it on the customs label as a gift, which is probably illegal but I've known of several occasions where it's worked.

In my case I was able to save £300 on a Sigma lens that would have cost £800 in the UK and ended up ordering it from Hong Kong. For that price difference I considered it was worth it, but for £50 I, personally, wouldn't take the risk. Even the Tokina, despite having a higher price difference, is probably worth getting locally for the same reasons.

Ah, forgot to mention that I'm going to China for the summer (family there). During that time I'm also planning to travel for 3-4 weeks, hence the investment in the lens. So I'll buy it in Shanghai in person.

I was leaning the same way as you for the Nikon. My visit to the Calumet Photo store let me underwhelmed at their attitude, and they quoted £600 for the Tokina that they don't even stock , might drop by to Jessops and see if they'll let me try the Nikon out.

I'll need to make the call in the next two weeks probably.