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David Attenborough: Don't Have Large Families 
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Doesn't have much of a life

Joined: Sat Apr 25, 2009 6:50 am
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ProfessorF wrote:
Thing is, to raise the rest of the world to our technological standard - implementing a national grid and telecoms and all the associated technology that we enjoy - would require at least another Earth's worth of copper. Clearly, and despite whatever recycling efforts we make, we don't have a spare Earth.

That claim is founded on a series of undeclared but contestable assumptions to do with timescales, geology and industrial processes. Show your workings and prepare to have them pooh-poohed. I will allow, for the sake of argument, that there is no second Earth.

ProfessorF wrote:
The same goes for the oceans - what we take (and perhaps more importantly, what we put in) far out strips what can be absorbed by nature. And that's a huge problem caused by population increase.

It's a problem typically related to population increase in the past. It is not caused directly by it (unless humans are sea dwelling mammals that crap PCBs). We can simultaneously increase population and decrease quantities of crap we offload into the oceans. It requires better management of water on farms (which is a good idea anyway), less polluting power stations (also a good idea in and of itself) and many other things that are in general all good ideas that should be done anyway.

On a more cynical level, you are changing your logic and I will be leveraging that if you don't revert to your original course. The planet's ability to sustain a given number of human lives is not a factor of any single resource other than oxygen* or water neither of which is in any danger of reaching lethal levels of scarcity. The seas can lose all of their edible species of fish without necessitating hunger. We can take to farming more species of fish if we like. In a few decades (maybe less) we can probably grow Cod in a petri dish. In the meantime there are plenty of delicious vegetables for all. The shift you are subtly, and no doubt unconsciously making, is to drift away from the empirical claim that the world cannot support x number of people, towards a normative attitude that it shouldn't. But that is a different claim.

ProfessorF wrote:
As for the silver issue, there is in fact, a supply issue. People are stockpiling it because the output is decreasing. We're approaching the point where the silver in the ground is less than the silver available. Certain German car manufacturers are stock piling it because their favoured 'just in time' supply model doesn't work any more with this element. As an economic whizz, you must know what happens to the price of a scarce resource.
This isn't going to improve - more silver isn't going to become available.

The price increases. A thing that economists call a 'price signal' then applies. Supply is diverted away from frivolous uses such as relatively cheap jewellery and gimmicky deodorants, towards applications where an increasingly expensive commodity adds greater value (investment, "hoarding", and those few industrial uses where it is an essential ingredient to a high value product). The market sends price signals and suppliers, investors and customers respond to them. Silver jewellery becomes rarer and more expensive over a very long time period. Civilisation does not collapse. Easy.

ProfessorF wrote:
The Earth is a finite resource, and each year we use more. Each year, we have more people, demanding more resources from an ecological system that can't presently sustain the demands we make upon it.
While I salute your fond notion that 'more tech' is a practical answer, the question of 'how much?' (in both economic and political terms), 'how?' and 'when?' are the key issues here.

And each year, we also improve our ability to discover more resources, find new uses for what used to be discarded, and retrieve resources that once were nonviable. Not only has this pattern been demonstrated by generation after generation ever since the dawn of the industrial revolution, but it has gathered momentum with every year also. You are neglecting a crucial factor. Innovations are driven by a variety of factors, but primary among them is demand. Things sometimes pop up ahead of the need (lasers being the obvious example), but their availability tends to create demand for their application. Most innovation though are designed to solve the problem that is in front of their creator. Academic studies show that in the 19th century American industrial patents were skewed towards labour saving innovations, whereas British ones tended towards conservation of fuel - this reflected the huge availability of wood in America at the time (a resource since massively depleted, but without which they continue to thrive) and the much looser labour supply in Britain at the time. The greatest economic gains on both sides of the Atlantic still went to firms that could make the most of both resource types.




*I was highly disappointed by the results of googling "Peak Oxygen". Why is there no campaign to preserve this most precious of all the resources? Has our supply of panicking Cassandras peaked?


Fri Sep 13, 2013 12:48 am
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Doesn't have much of a life

Joined: Sat Apr 25, 2009 6:50 am
Posts: 1911
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This week's special report in the Economist is to do with what we are discussing. They conclude, as I have, that there is no linear relationship between population and environmental degradation. Wealthier societies are better able to shepherd environmental resources for a variety of reasons than poor ones. You'll have to get your hands on the print edition for the main story, but the leader page is here.

http://www.economist.com/news/leaders/2 ... ction-hang


Sat Sep 14, 2013 3:10 am
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