http://www.theguardian.com/politics/201 ... n-blow-bnp

I wouldn't count them out just yet, especially now Labour, the Tories and UKIP are all whipping up hysteria about immigrants.

The fact becoming bankrupt doesn't stop you being an MEP says everything. "Yes, we know you can't even manage your own finances, but carry on trying to run the continent.."

I'm not so sure. With the rise of UKIP which are seen to be more acceptable to vote for (and more likely to get seats) and the Tories promising a vote on EU membership, I think the BNP could lose loads of votes this time round.

As far as I can see, UKIP is just the BNP with better packaging.

I think the difference is the BNP hate all foreigners and non christian religions, UKIP just don't want to be controlled by the EU and don't want to give benifits to non UK citizens.
I can sympathise with the later point of view, but certainly not the former.
Having said that, there are of course a few racists within UKIP, and they need to get rid of them if they wish to maintain credibility.

Question. If the Tories won the next election, had the EU vote and we came out of the EU, would UKIP disband?

First I doubt that the Tories will win. Though if they did by some miracle win, UKIP will still have other things to challenge the Tories over. The running of the economy to start with.

If they were smart enough yes, but probably not, they would most likely implode.

On our exit from the EU, most of our international bipartite trade pacts would be gone because they are all signed with the EU not the UK, and other countries would be in no hurry to extend EU trade rights to us until our own relationship to Europe was resolved. This would include America and China. So we would be desperate for any deal we were offered.

UKIP would go mental when they saw the terms, and most of their supporters would abandon politics in dismay. No doubt a small rump of clowns would persist in some way. But overall, our next 20 years of political silliness would be about trying to get back into Europe.

when we leave the EU we will still have a full trade agreement with the EU
the UK will be like some other countries that have a full trade agreement but are not full members of the EU

our history of trade with the USA and China pre-date any date of EU membership ...

Who told you that? It's a fantasy, we would have to negotiate one of those.


There is no boilerplate contract waiting for a signature, and if there were, UKIP would still hate it. We will still be subject to all the restrictions, and won't get our cushy opt-outs or a vote. The Swiss have a crappy deal, we would definitely get a worse one. We are the treacherous Anglo Saxons, our allies within the EU already don't approve of us much, the rest think we are destructive and surly. When we come begging, we will be expected to grovel. Get ready to eat a big bowl of [LIFTED].


Sure, but since we stopped making those deals on our own behalf, all the deals offering market access and tariff reductions have been signed with the EU, not the UK. We leave the EU, we aren't covered any more. We aren't in Mercosur or NAFTA, we won't be in TPP, and the Doha round of WTO has achieved sweet FA, which is why all these little regional deals are so important.

We will be royally [LIFTED].

the original agreement when joining the EEC was a trade agreement and is still in place
agreed and signed by a conservative Govt. lead by Ted Heath

the idea of leaving the EU is not to have a vote within the EU but have self determination from the EU

any agreements that need to made with other trade organisations such as NAFTA will not be difficult and would be welcomed by the other trade organisations
as they are just trade agreements not complete political control of their or our Govt's ...

No chance. We have agreed to countless amendments since then, and if we walk away from the EU we walk away from all of those agreements. We could probably get back into EFTA (which we automatically left in order to join the EU) but to gain back what we lose we would need to negotiate entry to the EEA, which is not going to be easy, or else negotiate on a bilateral basis. UKIP would bitterly resent the results either way. As would you.

We are the least protectionist of all the large EU nations, so with our departure, everyone on the outside will be getting a worse deal than before.

Joining the EEA would subject us to many of the same restrictions as full membership of the EU, we just wouldn't get any say in their configuration.


Utter fantasy. Bilateral trade agreements require years of ball squeezingly tedious negotiation. Nobody will even open them until we have voted to leave the EU, and nobody of substance will conclude one with us within this decade. The juicy ones that offer the best returns are regional. The EU is not only the region we are in, but also the best and most effective such organisation in the world, imperfect though it may be. If the EU concludes its next agreement with the USA, and if we get left out of that entirely, that would be a bad thing.

We run a very strong risk of having no good trade agreements with any country that matters as a result of jumping ship. For a large-ish, developed economy that's a very exposed situation. The results are unpredictable, but to cut it in the big globalised world that has emerged since we first ducked under the EU's protective skirts, we would have to liberalise on unflattering terms.

we have agreed to amendments but the treaty of Rome is most certainly still in place and has not been replaced, reverting to this agreement is allowed under EU policy

they on the outside or inside agree there own agreements

NAFTA have been asking us to sign up for many years

as of no trade agreements with any one, i wonder ...

That's why I said 'if'.

As much as I detest the current shower of tw@ts, can anyone think of a credible alternative? Millibot is as appealing as a used teabag - the only way he's getting in is via a massive protest vote - and Cleggy's lot have sh1t in the nest big time, so they won't stand a chance for a long, long time.

That's the only reason I'm hopeful the Tories might win. They've cocked up massively with the NHS (among other things) but they may still be saved due to the others being worse. Normally they'd get slaughtered after mistakes like that.