Discuss here, I guess.

Looks like it’s a hung parliament, folks. Labour has taken a beating, and the LibDems have come a disappointing third. Thankfully, Nick Griffin failed in Dagenham.

Lots of discussion on the BBC about how a hung parliament works, and the fact the the monarch could choose who to form a government, or possibly even order another election.

My constituency is a Conservative hold, despite the LibDems’ efforts.

In my area (Hampstead and Kilburn) Labour have held on with 42 votes over Conservative, with Liberals also very close.

I might have to emigrate again.

Sadly, I live in a constituency where your proverbial monkey in a suit would win if it wore a red rosette. According to the beeb, the vote %ages have varied hardly at all from the last election.

Jon

It is now officially a hung parliament according to the BBC coverage.

Let the horse trading begin.

Last time I looked, Jeremy Vine was having great difficulty in constructing a majority coalition government with the numbers he had. I cannot see any of his solutions holding fast for any length of time. It seems that the votes are still so polarised between Labour and Conservative that there isn’t a big enough slice of the pie to make the LibDems “king makers” on their own, so they have to start pulling in DUP, Scottish Nationalists, Plaid Cymru etc.. This isn’t a bad thing, as they all need a crack of the whip, but it only needs there to be something out of kilter or a political hissy fit to reduce the majority (which will be slim - possibly under 10) to a minority.

Given this, I’d say we’ll have to be prepared to go through this all again in the not so distant future.

Factor in the potential challenges on results with people turned away and the fact that as a country we're clearly unable to manage the counting of a few bits of paper in an orderly and timely manner, and I wouldn't be surprised at that.

If he sticks to that, I suspect it'll be Conservative-Lib Dem for a coalition, and it's certainly the only option that seems to have solid numbers.



This is quite a valid point.

Thing is, people are getting ahead of themselves. Under the current system, Brown gets the first opp to form something. So stop talking about what's "fair", "right" and "correct". The popular vote has never mattered before so don't think you can change the rules now just because you're stuck.

GIven the numbers at time of this post:
Cons: 291
Lab: 248
Libs: 51

It seems that a Lib/Con alliance would form a majority.

That's not what I voted for. Then again, neither was a Lib/Lab alliance...

Here's the galling bit (allowing for the 30 polls still to be called). The BBC's scoreboard gives the total votes thus:

Conservative = 10,196,641 / 36.1% of the vote / 291 seats
Labour = 8,274,620 / 29.3% of the vote / 251 seats
Liberal Democrat = 6,447,493 / 22.8% of the vote / 51 seats

So, score just shy of 25% of the total votes, get 12% of the total seats.

(Please accept my apologies if my maths is way off beam. Numbers scare me.)

There are 650 seats in the HoC. All those seats will be filled once the votes are counted - well, with the exception of one seat where one of the candidates died so the vote has been postponed. That means to get a majority who can vote on any bill, you need 325 seats. That means Labour and the Liberal Democrats can't form a majority; they just happen have more than the Tories do on their own. If the Tories got all the minor parties to vote on their side, they could still beat a Lib/Lab alliance. The tories and libdems can form a majority on their own, without requiring the green & the regional party MPs to go along with them.

Current numbers are

Cons : 291
Lab : 251
LibDem : 52
Scots nats: 6
Plaid Cymru : 3
Others : 18
Undeclared : 29


As you can see, as things currently, stand, the number of undeclared's is important but the only combinations which would actually produce a working majority are Cons/Lab (which is real 'snowball in hell' territory) or Cons/Lib. Any other combination requires getting and keeping the minority parties on side which is a really, really bad situation for parliament actually getting stuff done.

Most online betting agencies are now giving around evens that there will be another general election before the end of 2010.

Cons now on 294
Labour 251
Libs 52

26 yet to declare.

If Cons can get 318 then they would have majority if they tied-up with Ulster Unionists who have 8.

If they can't get a majority then Con/Lib Dem tied-up would be best - perhaps with Vince Cable as Chancellor?

That would be a particulary evil thing to do to poor Vince. As then the Tories can blame all those horrible choices they have no choice but to make on the Liberals.

Though my money is a rerun in a few months.

Apparently, from both sides, that's been ruled out.

Aside from people not being able to vote investigations are being made into electoral fraud clicky

If Labour, who have first dibs, can't form a coaltion (that would need just about everybody) then the Conservatives may have an opportunity to form a minority Government.

That would mean there would have to be a time limt before another election, less than a year, at the end of which they would be even less likely to get a majority as they plan to instigate wide cuts. How they would cut in NI if they get the Unionists on board I don't know.

I find it funny the Tories are dead set against PR and yet keep harping on about the % of the vote they got. You can't have it both ways.

13 years of Labour and the worst economic downturn globally for quite some time and they still can't get a majority. They have no more right to Govern than anybody else.

Edit: The LibDems may form a coalition with Labour on the proviso that GB resigned but then the Tories could argue why would they have a mandate to govern.

On the other hand if the Tories did form a minority Government they could then be immeditely opposed by the Welsh and Scottish as in Wales they only have 8 seats and in Scotland just 1 seat. Quite understandably it could be argued that Cameron has absolutely no mandate to govern the Assembly and Executive.