http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/finance/rowenamason/100003663/you-dont-need-to-be-a-mad-max-survivalist-to-take-peak-oil-seriously/

Thoughts?

My thoughts? We recently found a [LIFTED] load of oil in British waters in both the North Atlantic and near the Falkland Islands. As such, we're currently arguing with both Iceland and Argentina as to who gets what.

If its in British waters then we tell the to [LIFTED] off and remind them both, even with Browns and Blairs decimation of the Navy in the last 13 years we can still kick there puny navies

The size of the oil find in the Falklands is extensive to say the least - approx. 6 billion barrels. Apparently the largest oil field in the world is currently 8 billion barrels, so there's a lot down South - the Treasury will be pleased! There's a shed load of natural gas there too. Suddenly defending the Falklands was even more worthwhile.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldne ... onomy.html

So basically, you're not bothered?

Not really, there's no shortage of it. By all means research alternatives, but we're nowhere near "crunch time" yet.

Time to bring back Thatcher for a while...?

Actually I think peak production has probably already happened in 2007/8. Only the world slump stopped it being noticeable. The IEA have fiddled the oil reserve figures for years under pressure from the USA. The Saudis will not allow a proper audit of its fields. Even IEA insiders had declared the figures not worth the paper that they are printed on. Politicians want the cheap oil out ASAP because it keeps the masses happy. Remember the petrol shortage of 2001. People were panicking. The US wants cheap oil because their economy would struggle if prices rose substantially and they are trying to keep prices low enough till they are out of office. It will be someone else's problem then. US continental oil production peaked in 1975, Mexico's peaked last year, UK North sea peaked in the 90's. The Saudi's biggest field probably peaked last year as well.

Then add in the fact that oil finds are becoming harder and more expensive. The recent Brazilian find is in deep water so will be expensive. The same will apply to the Falklands and Atlantic finds. While there will probably be oil around for another couple of hundred years it will become much harder to extract and much more expensive, so say good bye to flights abroad unless you are super rich.

Pretty much says it all.

Personally I think the peak happened about six months before An Inconvenient Truth.

Bring on the apocalypse, I'm ready.

while the oil is still available and usable by us at a reasonable price this would be the time to invest in a new energy infrastructure
public and private transport being the first moves away from oil reliance

then a detailed program for the next 20 years to renew/replace the energy generation stations that are required to maintain our standard of living

but sadly i feel that the powers to be will wait until the last minute and then panic …

You might have a wait. The prices will be very volatile for a while while economies get used to the high prices and adjust. There may be riots in some countries that do not have the resources to adapt

Yes but you forget that R&D from oil companies are constantly making deep sea oil finds cheaper. Peak oil has been spouted to be coming for years and ofcourse its going to occur but everyone forgets that it is in the interests of OPEC countries to play down production capacity and oil reserves sine they are a global cartel, Because it keeps oil prices high. People also forget that deep sea oil finds are going to be more and more extensive. People forget that there are alot of countries that are too unstable to extract oil and there are also many countries too unstable to find oil. Canadian oil shale. Oil reserves are not all acounted for.
Peak oil is about 20-40 years away.

Not quite right. They actually drop prices when there is credible threat to their power. If oil prices rise too high it makes the marginal fields around the world profitable like the deep sea deposits. If renewables looked like a threat then again they would open the pipes for a short while to kill off any investment. Without any credible price to recover the investment that oil could be a mirage as far as investment is concerned.


Yes but more expensive to get at. Certainly more than $90 a barrel. Until prices are above this level no one will invest.


Oil shale is a eco disaster waiting to happen. You need to burn so much oil to create the required heat to extract the oil from the shales then the amounts water required are huge, which will need cleaning before it can ever be left. These put the costs of oil shale at more than $120 a barrel. While the amounts of oil are enormous the environmental costs are huge.


That is what they want you to believe. What do you think the average voter would do if they found out it was yesterday and that prices were never going to be this cheap again? Once the prices started hurting there would be riots everywhere that would bring down governments. Hence push it off until the future and it becomes someone else's problem. The theory of Peak Oil is peak production. There will probably be enough oil for several hundred years but never this cheap or available. There has not been a significant oil find for more than a decade. Oil companies are depleting their reserves and are certainly not discovering enough to replace what they have extracted.

The issue of pricing is the one that I find most interesting.

I paid 123.9 for V-Power on the A46 just north of Bath two days ago. The last time it was that expensive down here was August 08. I know, because I keep a spreadsheet of all my fuel purchases!

I'm beginning to wonder if prices are only gonna get more expensive from here on in. And whether or not there's more oil, if prices continue to rise (however slowly), that presents a bunch of fascinating, interestingly debatable, but ultimately worrying problems.

There will be a lot of volatility until it is clear that they cannot hide production figures any longer. In Europe much of the cost is duty which is the same regardless of oil price. So the actual component from oil price is minor, it does mean that our oil prices might rise the same as say in the US ie pence per gallon/litre, but the percentage increase will be much smaller. The Americans will suffer from doubling in prices while ours might only rise 20%.