http://news.sky.com/skynews/Home/Strang ... 0165?f=rss
Erm, time for an investigation I think
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| Lady Luck: Jackpot Joan Scoops Fourth Win http://www.x404.co.uk/forum/viewtopic.php?f=19&t=9319 |
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| Author: | pcernie [ Tue Jul 06, 2010 12:24 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Lady Luck: Jackpot Joan Scoops Fourth Win |
http://news.sky.com/skynews/Home/Strang ... 0165?f=rss Erm, time for an investigation I think
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| Author: | big_D [ Tue Jul 06, 2010 1:12 pm ] | |||||||||
| Post subject: | Re: Lady Luck: Jackpot Joan Scoops Fourth Win | |||||||||
The chances of winning a fourth time are exactly the same as winning for the first time, it isn't cumulative odds. |
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| Author: | rustybucket [ Tue Jul 06, 2010 1:43 pm ] | ||||||||||||||||||
| Post subject: | Re: Lady Luck: Jackpot Joan Scoops Fourth Win | ||||||||||||||||||
Yes - and no. Once you have won 3 times, the probability of the fourth win is the same as that of the first. However, the probability of winning a first time AND and a second time AND and a third time AND and a fourth time is: P (4xwin) = (P (win)) AND (P (win)) AND (P (win)) AND (P (win)) P (4xwin) = (P (win)) * (P (win)) * (P (win)) * (P (win)) P (4xwin) = (P (win)) ^ 4 Which means that they've got their sums wrong - by their reckoning, the odds of a single win are 119/1. I want to enter that lottery! The odds of a single win for the Texas State Lottery are stated as 25,867,165 / 1. This means that the odds of a quadruple win are actually (4.47708493383 x 10^29) / 1. Time to investigate I think. |
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| Author: | Amnesia10 [ Tue Jul 06, 2010 4:11 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Lady Luck: Jackpot Joan Scoops Fourth Win |
She is clearly from the future and is trying to win enough money to build her own time machine to get back home. |
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| Author: | eddie543 [ Wed Jul 07, 2010 1:29 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Lady Luck: Jackpot Joan Scoops Fourth Win |
watch out to see if she is mysteriously ravaged in a "dog" attack. Which is infact a hellhound. |
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| Author: | Alexgadgetman [ Wed Jul 07, 2010 1:54 pm ] | ||||||||||||||||||
| Post subject: | Re: Lady Luck: Jackpot Joan Scoops Fourth Win | ||||||||||||||||||
Yet the probability of a quadruple win will also depend upon how many tickets she has bought... Seeing as I dont actually have a clue how these scratchcards work (chances are a £1.3million win are higher than a £6.6million win). Although obviously the odds arent cumulative they will still vary after numberous scratchcards. Say there is a 0.1 chance of winning something, each time it is independant probability of the last. So on the first time the probability of a loss is 9/10 The second time the probability of a loss is 9/10 The third time the probability of a loss is 9/10 and so on and so on. So say you buy 50 scratchcards the probability of losing every time is 9/10 to the power of 50. So in the instance of her buying these scratchcards, the more she bought, the more likely she should be to have a win. Which is why i think the value of:
Is probably a much too low probability. Anyway, you will hopefully get where this is aimed (it isnt actually suggesting the earlier P working was in any way wrong, just didnt consider all her fails. |
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