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Nick
Spends far too much time on here
Joined: Thu Apr 23, 2009 11:36 pm
Posts: 3527
Location: Portsmouth
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I'm starting to lose interest tbh.  _________________
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| Fri Sep 11, 2009 8:28 am |
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Fogmeister
I haven't seen my friends in so long
Joined: Thu Apr 23, 2009 7:35 pm
Posts: 6580
Location: Getting there
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Well, I guess we'll find out in 2 minutes!
Channel 4 now!
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| Fri Sep 11, 2009 8:01 pm |
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Fogmeister
I haven't seen my friends in so long
Joined: Thu Apr 23, 2009 7:35 pm
Posts: 6580
Location: Getting there
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Probably the best thing I have ever seen!
THEY ACTUALLY PREDICTED THE NUMBERS!!!
OMFG!
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| Fri Sep 11, 2009 8:57 pm |
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Linux_User
I haven't seen my friends in so long
Joined: Tue May 05, 2009 3:29 pm
Posts: 7173
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+1 DERREN BROWN HAS AN INSIDER AT CAMELOT WHO SWITCHED THE BALLS! OMFG!  :etc:
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| Fri Sep 11, 2009 9:01 pm |
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Fogmeister
I haven't seen my friends in so long
Joined: Thu Apr 23, 2009 7:35 pm
Posts: 6580
Location: Getting there
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Yeah, I wrote the last post before they did option 3. ... ... ... He wouldn't have done that... ... would he? ... I can't freaking wait until next Friday!
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| Fri Sep 11, 2009 9:02 pm |
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pg2114
Doesn't have much of a life
Joined: Sat Apr 25, 2009 9:17 pm
Posts: 741
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That's no clearer for me. Did he predict them or just swap the balls? Peter. _________________A Mac user 
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| Fri Sep 11, 2009 9:09 pm |
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Fogmeister
I haven't seen my friends in so long
Joined: Thu Apr 23, 2009 7:35 pm
Posts: 6580
Location: Getting there
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Yes, He definitely either predicted the lottery OR swapped the balls. I hope that's clearer for you 
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| Fri Sep 11, 2009 9:19 pm |
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pg2114
Doesn't have much of a life
Joined: Sat Apr 25, 2009 9:17 pm
Posts: 741
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As clear as mud, yes  Peter. Edit: I've just seen this on the C4 website. It's all mind games! _________________A Mac user
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| Fri Sep 11, 2009 9:30 pm |
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jonbwfc
What's a life?
Joined: Thu Apr 23, 2009 7:26 pm
Posts: 17040
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 The explanation he gave is bunk. The Wisdom of Crowds is a known phenomenon but it centres around the estimation of a quantifiable, absolute quantity. The size of a bull, the number of sweets in a jar, the number of people in a football station. 'An amount' of 'a thing'. The lottery numbers are not like that. They are not a given quantity of something. They are, obviously, a discrete set of random values. It's not like the guesses of the people in the group could be less or more right or wrong. The Wisdom of Crowds relies on averaging as a method of essentially correcting for an individual person's error by using everybody else's error. There's no 'degree of error' with a lottery number, the error is either 100% or 0%. If you average a group where people are either 100% wrong or 0% wrong, you can't get a 0% error, the maths doesn't work that way. That is unless they're all right anyway, which is incredibly statistically unlikely and certainly could't happen 6 times in a row. And as for the automatic writing, there's no logic as to why this should affect the accuracy of The Wisdom of Crowds. It's a statistical anomaly not dissimilar to newtonian estimation, the subconscious has nothing to do with it. It was a great show and he's a consummate performer. I love this stuff, it's real proper 'old school' magic. Houdini would love it. But it's bunk. Jon
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| Fri Sep 11, 2009 9:54 pm |
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pg2114
Doesn't have much of a life
Joined: Sat Apr 25, 2009 9:17 pm
Posts: 741
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My thoughts exactly, Jon.
Also, I don't understand how he "Averaged" the balls out. If I predicted "01 02 03 04 05 06" and another person predicted "49 48 47 46 45 44", how would you average them out? Do you sort the predictions in numerical order? Do you round decimal averages or just truncate it? So many questions and so few answers.
Peter.
_________________A Mac user
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| Fri Sep 11, 2009 10:00 pm |
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Fogmeister
I haven't seen my friends in so long
Joined: Thu Apr 23, 2009 7:35 pm
Posts: 6580
Location: Getting there
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I saw the comment about how they never used the second camera in tonight's show.
Could that be there for the final show's "reveal" on how they actually did all the shows.
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| Fri Sep 11, 2009 10:00 pm |
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Linux_User
I haven't seen my friends in so long
Joined: Tue May 05, 2009 3:29 pm
Posts: 7173
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 | | | | jonbwfc wrote: The explanation he gave is bunk. The Wisdom of Crowds is a known phenomenon but it centres around the estimation of a quantifiable, absolute quantity. The size of a bull, the number of sweets in a jar, the number of people in a football station. 'An amount' of 'a thing'. The lottery numbers are not like that. They are not a given quantity of something. They are, obviously, a discrete set of random values. It's not like the guesses of the people in the group could be less or more right or wrong. The Wisdom of Crowds relies on averaging as a method of essentially correcting for an individual person's error by using everybody else's error. There's no 'degree of error' with a lottery number, the error is either 100% or 0%. If you average a group where people are either 100% wrong or 0% wrong, you can't get a 0% error, the maths doesn't work that way. That is unless they're all right anyway, which is incredibly statistically unlikely and certainly could't happen 6 times in a row.
And as for the automatic writing, there's no logic as to why this should affect the accuracy of The Wisdom of Crowds. It's a statistical anomaly not dissimilar to newtonian estimation, the subconscious has nothing to do with it.
It was a great show and he's a consummate performer. I love this stuff, it's real proper 'old school' magic. Houdini would love it. But it's bunk.
Jon | | | | |
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| Fri Sep 11, 2009 10:02 pm |
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pg2114
Doesn't have much of a life
Joined: Sat Apr 25, 2009 9:17 pm
Posts: 741
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Is there another show about it? Peter. _________________A Mac user
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| Fri Sep 11, 2009 10:08 pm |
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Fogmeister
I haven't seen my friends in so long
Joined: Thu Apr 23, 2009 7:35 pm
Posts: 6580
Location: Getting there
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Another good point.
They averaged the numbers of the first, second and so on of each person.
i.e. first number of all 23 averaged. second number of all 23 averaged. etc...
Then they moved them into numeric order.
In order to get a 2 they would have all had to chose 1, 2 or 3 in the same place.
Last edited by Fogmeister on Fri Sep 11, 2009 10:10 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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| Fri Sep 11, 2009 10:09 pm |
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Fogmeister
I haven't seen my friends in so long
Joined: Thu Apr 23, 2009 7:35 pm
Posts: 6580
Location: Getting there
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Well, there are 5 shows in total. People are suggesting that the final show will be a proper reveal.
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| Fri Sep 11, 2009 10:09 pm |
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