Except if you are Argentina or SA / Australia as they will all have to beat NZ to get to the final. Out of the 4 northern nations, I agree anything is possible.

Thing is NZ always look like the team to beat. The thing is they have always gotten beat on the way to the final.

We'll have to see if they have the balls for it this year. They certainly haven't since the first ever RWC.

OK Lets look at the results so far

NZ are the only team to get 20 points
NZ are the only team to score over 180 points ( Wales ) they scored 240 that's 60 extra points
Its on their home turf
Its the only world cup that I can recall that they actually looked like winning it ( other than the first one ).
Who will they have to beat?
Argentina - sorry but not a contest
Who ever wins between SA and Australia neither of which have shone so far.
Then either Wales or Ireland, France or England............ Need I say more

I will be shocked if they don't win it

I know very impressive as ever, they look a formidable side as ever.

The thing is they always bottle it, just look at the last RWC Group stages:

Played 4, won 4, 20 points scored. Scoring points for 309, points against 35 which is a +274 difference. The next highest scorers were Australia who had scored 215 which is 94 points less and 34 points more than the current margin with Wales.

What I'm saying is they almost always turn out the favourites and almost always have an outstanding side. However, almost always they bottle it so you shouldn't discount their opposition so quickly.

The only thing that may save their nerves is home advantage and the fact that their opposition this year hasn't shone quite so brightly even though they had a larger score for advantage than they do this year.

We may have peaked way too soon and expended everything on winning the Tri Nations (and a large portion of the team winning the Super series).

I think the keys for Australia and NZ will be injuries. The ABs already have a big blow losing Carter and Australia are vulnerable when they don't have the usual suspects available. Not having a genuine openside flanker against Ireland cost us that game. As for Ireland v Wales, I think the fact that Wales almost outmuscled the Boks (no easy feat) gives them the edge over Ireland.

I agree with you, historically they have peaked a year too early then bottled in at the RWC, this time they just look better in the Pool stages than I remember, maybe its just me wanting them to win after the [LIFTED] year NZ has had.

TBH I would like to see NZ win for a second time, finally. They always have such good sides and usually give such entertaining displays that it's about time they were rewarded.

I just wouldn't bet on them at 8/11

personally I would like Argentina to win it. Just because I'm a contrary so and so and it would be so funny.

Yep, they've looked clinical in the pool stages so far, none of the wobbliness displayed in the past (or by the other "top" nations in this cup). And you're right - a win for them on home soil after the year NZ has had would be a fantastic result for the country.



That would be another great result. I'm hugely looking forward to the expansion of the Tri Nations and Argentina's inclusion - they really deserve a bigger platform to play on.

Yeah, they might spend a few seasons as whipping boys, but I can see them developing and challenging the big boys eventually.

Theres talk of expanding the Six Nations to include Georgia, too - They are an emerging, physical team; and I'd like to see them compete more often.

Absolutely. It won't be an easy task, so I don't think anyone has any delusions about their early chances, but it's going to be the best thing for them and for the series, which has been getting a bit stale of late, to be honest. Plus, it will be interesting to see how Aus, SA and NZ go playing Argentina on their home turf.

Hadn't heard that about Georgia, that's good news - I really enjoyed watching them play.

given time zones TV audiences SA joining the 6 nations would be more sensible.

Always baffled me that we said no to Argentina basing them selves in Portugal and joining teh 6 nations.

Yeah, but how long would the 6 Nations last with the result being - Winner: South Africa - year after year after year?

I think it was a bit of snobbery on the part of the northern unions that kept Argentina out when there was talk of getting them more Tests. Suits us, hopefully we'll get some of their players coming to the Super 15 as well.

The first couple of years would have been painful but we would have all improved I think it would have been beneficial.

Plus a rugby weekend in SA sounds an exceptionally good idea to me.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport1/hi/rugby_union/15157763.stm My estimation of Guscott has just gone up hugely.

Although I have to say I think Martin Johnsons quote last week, about a separate incident, was a total classic. "Rugby players drink Beer - Shock horror "