Well if the Argies are going to kick off again they've got a 7-8 year window until we get carriers that have jets.

We built a bloody great airfield on the islands after the last time, stationed four Typhoons on it and put a bunch of soldiers and a few missile batteries round it to stop anyone knocking the runway out in the event anything kicked off. It's specifically there to allow the islands to be rapidly reinforced should an invasion happen/appear imminent. We could probably have a dozen Typhoons operating out of The Falklands tomorrow, whereas even if we had a carrier and the Harriers to fly off it, they'd take weeks to get there. The Falklands effectively are an aircraft carrier.

The whole carrier thing is stupid, but it's not a factor in The Falklands.

The Argentinians successfully invaded the islands last time a) Because Maggie gave them the impression she didn't give a feck about the islands and b) There was pretty much nobody there to stop them when they did. Neither of those things are currently true, nor will they be for the forseeable future. I can't imagine any sane Argentinian government deciding invasion is a good idea (and the current PM is a bit of an opportunist but she's not insane).

If Cameron is hoping for a nice war to boost his popularity before 2015, he's going to have to find it somewhere else.

Those jets still have to land to refuel and reload in a combat situation. With enough (lower quality) jets of their own, the Argies could still reach the island to bomb the airfields. I guess we have enough anti-aircraft missiles on the ground to deal with that.

the bit in bold to point out what they dont have.

True, with an attritional attack they could take out the airfield. However if I was an Argentinian Air Force pilot and the plan of attack was 'we're going to keep throwing you at them until they run out of missiles' I'm not sure I'd be getting into my aircraft, court martial or not. Especially given the type-45 destroyer that's currently down there is generally considered to be one of the most advanced anti-air systems ever put to sea and they'd have to face that before they even got near the islands..

The Argentinian Air force has no modern combat aircraft. None. It's most recent acquisition was a bunch of 2nd hand planes from France that were already 20 years old when they bought them and that was a decade ago.

The Argentinians simply don't have the the men or equipment to invade The Falklands. They just don't. And they don't have the money to buy the kit they'd need to the job. One of the reasons their PM is rabble rousing it to try to take people's attention away from the fact their economy is as buggered as everyone else's. We've apparently spent £600million fortifying the islands, they'd have to spend at least as much before they could think of invading and that's money they just don't have.

There is going to be no 2nd Falklands War, at least not within the next decade (IMO). The conservative sympathising press may even want people to believe there might be, because even that will provide some small uplift to Cameron's reputation and popularity. But an even cursory examination of the facts suggests it's an utter fantasy.

I doubt that there will be a Falklands factor again. Look at the downturn in support that Labour had after the Iraq war. Governments cannot guarantee a positive outcome from a war any longer.

That's totally different. That was us invading someone else. A second Falklands war would be because someone invaded us.

Though a second Tory government having another invasion from the same nation would look incompetent. Support for the troops is very different for support for the government.