Doesn't matter who you are, you'd be going nuts

this doesn’t include the 'so called' bad debts in the all/other banks
the Laiki Bank which will be closed and used as a sink hole for this
with lenders to the Laika bank, share holders/bond holders and account holders (above the 100,000 euro mark), will loss everything up to and including their shirts

so it begins ...

So how many members of Cyprus' parliament will be assasinated for this? And not just by the russian maffia. I'd expect locals affected to get violent too.

unsure, but i bet there will be lots of naked dancing girls in the news to take our minds away from the facts ...

I think the Russians may blame the Germans more than the Cypriots. I mean it's not as if the latter have been given any choice but it's the Germans that are pushing the agenda in Europe right now. I can't see the locals making all that much of a fuss - this is classic bait & switch. They were told they were going to lose 10% of their savings regardless of how few they had then they were told they were safe unless they had €100,000 - which most of them won't have. So they'll feel they've been let off, even though in fact their economy has been kerb-stomped by the EU.

It's only a matter of time until someone drops out of the Euro. I'd have thought it would be better for the rest of the eurozone if it was a tiny country that did it rather than a larger one.

They are not creating good and bad banks for any bank that is insolvent. It is still unclear what is going to happen. The problem is that outside the Euro the rest of the debts will become unsustainable, and they will eventually default. A new Cypriot Pound will either have to fall in value substantially to get the economy going again, but that will also mean that the euro denominated debts will be unsustainable. So the worst thing that they could do now is get the government to accept liability for those debts. Let them stay within teh banks and allow them to go bust wiping the debts out. Only once that has happened will they do better.

I said that on page one of this thread.


Apparently even in Germany are people now thinking of a German exit. I think that the decision to hit small depositors has sealed the fate of the euro. The big losers will be business who might struggle to cope with having any surplus cash simply being taken to bail out reckless banks.

There are problems in the core of Europe, and the UK.

Here is a graph of countries with Non Performing Assets, ie bad debts. Britain is worse than Ireland and we all know how bad that turned out.



and which banks are particularly vulnerable, and could do considerable damage to the national economy simply because they are so big.



Also consider that Dexia has been bailed out twice. Bank of Cyprus is close to insolvent, RBS and Bank of Ireland and Allied Irish have already been nationalised.

Then where all the debts lie. Look at France whose banks which have nearly a trillion dollars outstanding from the collapsing economies from Italy Spain Greece, Ireland and Cyprus. Germany also has a considerable sum at risk. All these past bailouts have been bailouts of French and German banks. How much of that debt will actually be repaid? Germany is not much better, it could afford those losses even if they are very painful. Though it is also extremely exposed to France and these loans are not shown in this chart. So the French could collapse because of the problems in the periphery. If they exit then those loses become very real.



Look how exposed some banks are to the Eurozone periphery really are to big losses. Deutsche Bank are particularly weak because they are even more leveraged than Lehman's when they collapsed. They will be vulnerable to a French banking crisis.



As to what to do? Cyprus is similar to Greece in this respect.



As to what life will be like in Cyprus from now on read this

Then the Euro would implode. German money is the only thing keeping it going.

There are some who might think that the euro could survive without Germany, the problem will be the euro would be much weaker without it, and so that could be a significant boost to the remaining euro zone. It will be that German banks will need to right down euro denominated debts possibly considerably, and that the German banks will need their own bail out. The one benefit is that it will mean every country will need to look at cross border banking much more. In the UK it would have reduced the asset bubbles as we could not have relied on cheap Chinese savings. Longer term I think credit controls on banks might be a good way of preventing future contagion.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk.

I bet Cyprus wished Apple kept its main bank accounts there - thier cash pile would have paid off the debt

Chances are that they would have withdrawn it ages ago. All of the signs of problems were there at the last Greek bailout. Savvy investors would be diversified so would not have all their investments in one basket. Though the biggest losers will be average people who do not have access to the top financial advice, possibly retirees and small to medium businesses.

Trust the EU to find a way to legalise theft.

Banks open on Thursday - empty of money by Friday?

Can you imagine what will happen if crowds go to the bank to withdraw all their money and the bank refuse - watch this space!

I think that they will have a €100 limit so that might be unlikely. Though I suspect that people will be back every day until they have emptied their accounts or they get bored. They will want to normalise banking as fast as possible so they will probably try and get credit cards and cheques active again. Though it will depend on whether businesses will accept them. It could take many years before normal banking resumes, or weeks. No one knows.


Well they will probably act like night clubs with limited numbers being allowed entry. They are currently recruiting security guards for this, they are also retraining the bank staff to the new rules. So banks will only open with guards and they will try and restrict the numbers of customers getting in at once. They could even ration access by a list. So if your names not on the list you're not getting in. I suspect that the police will there in force as well. It could be few banks opening and each day more will be allowed to open. Until things have been announced no one knows.

There's not a security guard on earth who is going to stand between brand new employers and a rampaging mob. It's simply not worth the money. Even if they did, how many people would you need it overpower a couple of guards?

If there's more than say a dozen people outside the bank and they want to make a mess, there's nothing a couple of security guards will be able to do about it. Unless they're armed. And if they are 1) that's utterly insane and 2) It will escalate very quickly into something very nasty indeed.