The current crisis was kicked off many years ago, long before the crash. It can take a very long time before things collapse. Greece is slowly marching to serious civil unrest. Even in Ireland things are simmering, while the government are talking about exiting austerity there are rumours of another bailout being needed. In Hungary there is already a far right party holding many seats in government. The rise of UKIP could be our equivalent. It is the anger at the mainstream parties that is the cause. They are out of touch. Things can change but not with what is going on right now. It could take a number of years before things erupt, or they may be stopped by something else. It might be that you have been sucked in and believe all the government spin that things are improving. So the fact that unemployment might seemingly be under control ignores the new working patterns, of short hours topped up with in work benefits That applies in Germany just as much as here. Yet I doubt that we will have a major recovery for a decade or more. You are simply ignoring the fact that there is too much private debt about. How that debt is dealt with is the clue to how things develop. Debt crises take a long time to develop and can take a very long time to unwind.

UK household debt as share of disposable income is way down on its 2007 level and rapidly improving. The UK savings rate is high, massively above long term trend and the current level of indebtedness (household) is easily sustainable if it halves.

As you well know household spending is the primary driver of most developed economies, so the picture is really nothing like so bleak.

Hungarian fascism is nothing new, nasty nationalism is an East European pastime that continues through good and bad times and really isn't to be taken as an indicator of anything. UKIP might be dicks, but they aren't in the same league as those guys.

None of that post did anything to explain why an easily prevented banking collapse in the Eurozone core should be inevitable. That is still a silly notion, and it is still something you cling to because you want terrible events to unfold for some reason.

UK savings rate is higher than it was 2010 but is still not high or anywhere near the levels of even 1992. While household spending is the primary driver of spending it has been impacted because of cuts in in-work benefits. It is no better because of short time working so while unemployment is lower than could be expected that is because many are working shorter hours and even having lower pay. Both of these are not conducive to a growing economy. Also 8 million Britons have absolutely no savings at all, and if in this world that you are describing where are their savings?

UKIP might be dicks and nowhere as bad as the BNP, but if the Tories lose their voters to UKIP how many will move to the BNP?

As for preventing the banking collapse. Cyprus was not on most analysts radar until the Greek default. In fact Cyprus is small enough to not be a problem, but it was the way that it dealt with that problem that will seal the fate of Spain and possibly Italy. That is why it will be something unexpected that will cause problems, be it another Irish bail out or something else. Though because of the mishandling the crisis I do see the likelihood of several members being driven out of the Eurozone as now quite high. When that happens what is left of their euro denominated debts will become onerous and then they will default or they will be converted in to Drachmas on a 1:1 basis which will impose big losses on the banks in France (minimal writedowns) and Germany (mostly written off) that have not written them off by now. Also the coming banking crisis is not preventible, it is not a liquidity problem it is a solvency problem. Which is why central banks have been trying to get banks to earn their way out of trouble. It will require changes in treaty to do the things that you suggest.

I do not take any joy in what I predict. This will impact real people and their lives. What do you honestly think will happen if a series of extremist governments take power in eastern Europe? There will probably be the mass emigration of millions of Roma towards western Europe. No one knows what will happen but you should not make things worse with bad policy.

That would hardly be the first bank solvency crisis to get fixed without civilisation collapsing into chaos. No matter what kind of disaster you are predicting, it can be averted with an ECB backstop and a bad bank. I'm not saying that's a great thing, but it is easily done if the alternative looks ugly enough. The nature of European politics prevents it from being done right now, but you are in error if you suppose that means it is impossible. Plenty of things have already been done that exceed the treaty, more can be if need be. Provisions in treaties only take effect when enforced.

You will have to explain what you are on about with your Tory voters driving others into the clutches of the BNP. It looks like quite a weird claim in its present form.

You may claim you don't enjoy these predictions, but you sure do a lot of it. And as I mentioned, they always assume that other people stop making plausible decisions and do whatever weird silliness is required for you to get your undesirable result. You are clearly drawn to catastrophe, so much so that you are willing to suspend reason for its sake.

Extremist governments are the norm in Eastern Europe, more so the further east and south you go. The same goes for corruption and institutional criminality. But I'm waiting to see what point you are making; you seem to be veering wildly from one random segue to another in search of something to be thrillingly afraid of.