http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-29029022

An interesting test of the electorate in Clacton. In 2010, Carswell scored 53% of the vote, so it should be a safe Tory seat. This by-election will test the Conservatives’ position, and will obviously show us whether the electorate there is properly Conservative, or will follow a party with a more aggressive policy towards immigration and the EU.

I'm amazed that's a Tory seat setting as it's such a run down poor area. I'd always assumed it was a safe Labour seat.

We are taking Clacton-on-sea right?

Yes.

good luck to UKIP on October 9th ...

the next general election is going to be very interesting
1. if Scotland votes for independence then a few Labour seats are going to be missing
2. UKIP are now well and truly within the election melting pot
3. how many more MPs change parties before the election
4. i have no doubt the political world in this country is changing

Yup - it’s becoming more isolationist (wishing to withdraw from trade blocs, wanting to extract itself from human rights agreements), distrust of foreigners (especially the brown ones), more paranoid about its citizens (blanket surveillance of email, phones, web activity, CCTV everywhere), and far less concerned about the welfare of the populous (inclusion of the NHS in TTIP treaty - which is a whole other can of worms, punitive welfare reforms).

Yes, politics is steering us towards a truly dystopian future. Are you enjoying the ride?

UKIP still smells like nothing more than a protest vote. Farage is just making hay, while he has the chance - I don't think they're anywhere near to becoming a credible election threat. They might nick a few seats and upset the order, but they'll never win office - too many BNP-lite types in their ranks IMO.

Labour, Lib Dems and Tories all have foundational philosophical principles from which they tend to stray. In each case there is a purist faction (or a couple competing ones) and there are wets, moderates and pragmatists who prefer to tailor the vision to the circumstances.

The above looks like weakness, but it is critical infrastructure for a political party of any real scope. UKIP doesn't have it yet. They need to develop it if they want to evolve into a real political force; but if they do, they will repel their biggest fans who are all too shallow and stupid to cope with ambiguity (which is why they like UKIP today).

Can't see ukip getting many seats in Westminster. Most people I know who vote for them at European elections wouldn't trust them with real power at Westminster.

Yet they trusted them as the European Level, where they do absolutely nothing, where they are as offensive and obstructive as possible. Great if you want to make a political point, but if you are supposed to be representing a body of people who voted for you, then you need to be doing that. That’s the job.

Most people see teh EU parliament as a joke that exists to rubber stamp what unelected beurocrats decide they should vote on.

In UKIP's own words, they won't attract votes from "cultured, educated and young" people.
I'd like to think that's the majority.

Yes, you'd like to think that but you'd be deluding yourself if you did. The old vote and the young don't, as a rule.

Without appearing to be judgemental, I think they’ll do well in Clacton.