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The EU referendum thread 

In or out?
In 69%  69%  [ 18 ]
Out 23%  23%  [ 6 ]
We get to keep pie, right? 8%  8%  [ 2 ]
Total votes : 26

The EU referendum thread 
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big_D wrote:
MrStevenRogers wrote:
trade agreements between country's that wish to trade freely are very easy. making a trade agreement with the EU is hard if not impossible because the EU makes it that way. but i have no problem using WTO as a basic trade agreement with the EU as other nations outside the EU have already done so.

its a trade agreement not an agreement on anything else that the EU seem so keen to attach to any agreement regarding free trade with the 'single' market for the UK.
i am not looking at a agreement of free trade within the single market but an agreement to trade with the EU. reference China, USA and Russia as examples. i will let you do the home work ...

You are forgetting, that for the trade agreement, many other things have to be taken into consideration. Like data protection. The UK data protection laws are currently out of alignment with EU regulations and things like RIPA have been rebuffed several times, because they are illagal. Even if the UK exits from the EU, in order to trade with EU countries, the data protection is still relevant - just look at the struggles the USA is having with Safe Harbor being declared invalid and the amount of information airlines having to turn over to US authorities also being declared illegal.

It has gone so far, that companies like Microsoft are opening up cloud data centers in Europe (Magdeburg and Frankfurt am Main in Germany as a first step). which are run by a European entity (T-Systems, a subsidiary of Deutsche Telekom), which has administrative and phsyical access to the servers, but Microsoft don't have access to either the buildings or the data, without a valid EU search warrant and being accompanied by T-Systems officials. This makes it possible for Microsoft to offer cloud services in Europe to European businesses.

That is a huge plus for Microsoft, compared to Amazon's AWS, Google' Cloud, Oracle etc. who rely on the framework agreement (not rejected by EU courts, but has no stronger case for acceptance than the already defunct Safe Harbor) or the replacement for Safe Harbor, which also doesn't seem to have a legal leg to stand on.

If the UK leaves, it will still need to ensure that any data about EU nationals are held to EU standards, which is not possible if the UK has weaker data protection laws than EU requirements (which is currently the case anyway, which is why the UK is constantly being taken to task, for invading their citizens' privacy more than is legally allowed). Given that a large number of successful UK businesses are in the data storage and processing market, that makes it almost untenable to be able to continue business with Europe, which either means they will no longer be able to do business with Europe, or they will need to move over to the mainland (or to Ireland, which being an EU state and largely an English speaking land, would probably be the easier option for most businesses).


if you read jonbwfc post which i agree with you will find that the greater the EU try and control be it trade or data the larger the amount that will slip through their fingers. but we will wait and see as i believe a quick and hard exit is on the cards after such it will be down to the EU to agree our deal not the other way around ...

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Sat Oct 08, 2016 12:28 pm
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jonbwfc wrote:
big_D wrote:
If the UK leaves, it will still need to ensure that any data about EU nationals are held to EU standards,

Why? If the UK is beyond EU legislative control, what are the EU going to do? The EU trades data with many nations that don't hold it it's standards already - the US, for one obvious example.

Because it is a legal requirement of doing business with Europe. This is why the US is having such problems, especially the likes of Facebook and Google, they are constantly being pulled in front of the courts, because they are breaking the rules for storing personal data on Europeans. If you do business in Europe, you have to comply with EU laws, and that includes EU data protection. That was the whole point of the Max Schrems vs. Facebook case, which he won and thereby proved that the Safe Harbor agreement wasn't worth the toilet paper it was written on.

jonbwfc wrote:
The large majority of the middle and far east. And it trades with Russia and China despite both of those being if anything actively hostile to the EU in data security terms. There will probably be an incentive for EU businesses to keep their data inside the EU, but I see no mechanism by which the EU could enforce their standards upon anyone else. I doubt very much the EU could get a law passed that criminalised simply passing data outside the EU, there are way too many EU countries that rely on non-EU data processing centres. That why the safe harbour and etc agreements were created in the first place. The EU parliament may well think they can stop data leakage outside the EU, but the reality is they simply can't.

Ahain, see the Max Schrems case, the current Google investigations into data protection infringements etc.

The laws state that you must hold the data within the EU or you must guarantee, that it is held to the same standards when held offshore. That is where the US companies have fallen afoul of the law, because they agreed to Safe Harbor, which meant that they agreed to hold the data to European standards, including not passing the data to third parties without getting the written permission of identifiable parties. The companies were then complying with FISA Court letters and handing the data over to the US Government, which is illegal, thus the Safe Harbor collapsed and left the cloud providers without a leg to stand on and companies in Europe using cloud services with a presence (a presence mind you, not necessarily headquarters) in the USA with a serious problem, where their cloud provider was opening them up to prosecution and private legal action for breeching EU data protection laws, by allowing the US Government access to the data - even though the businesses were "unaware" of it, when they took out the contracts with the cloud companies.

Holding financial data in the cloud is even more risky, you need to get a special dispensation from the local treasury in order to store the data within the EU (outside the country of origin), let alone outside the USA.

I was handling the details of a partnership deal with a US based cloud service, as data protection officer for my employer, and that was one of the sticking points, they kept saying that everything was OK and that they had Safe Harbor (2012/2013) and I kept telling them that Safe Harbor wasn't going to work, because of the FISA courts. They just didn't seem to understand how doing business in Europe meant dealing with EU laws and making sure they were compliant. They did work with the German Finanzamt (Treasury) to get their accounting suite validated, but each customer had to then apply separately for dispensation to use the service, because it stored the data in 2 data centers in the USA.

jonbwfc wrote:
Note : I am and always have been in favour of the UK being in theEU, for lots of reasons. But in the real world the EU is not a perfect state, and many of the rules and legislation it makes is ignored wholesale by many of it's member states. if they try to impose strong data borders on the EU and it makes economic sense for businesses inside those borders to circumvent or ignore them, that is what they will do.

And that is what Facebook tried to do with Ireland, but the German and Austrian data protection legaslatives are very strong and the case ended up at the ECJ, because the Irish DP Commissioner said that it had nothing to do with them. The ECJ said otherwise, claiming that Safe Harbor was null and void in light of FISA and the Snowden revalations and that the Irish DPC should jolly well do his job!

Compared to countries like Germany and France, the UK data protection commissioner seems to be impotent and nearly useless.

jonbwfc wrote:
Quote:
Given that a large number of successful UK businesses are in the data storage and processing market, that makes it almost untenable to be able to continue business with Europe

With all due respect, just watch them.

With all due respect, most of them were bitching, before the Brexit vote, that if Brexit went through, they would probably have to leave the UK, if they wanted to continue doing business with the EU. If the UK doesn't comply with EU data protection regulations, then the companies will at least need to open data centers within the EU borders, and if RIPA gets approved, probably run the way the Microsoft centers are run - by an EU third party, where the company doesn't have any physical or administrative access to the data.

jonbwfc wrote:
Quote:
which either means they will no longer be able to do business with Europe, or they will need to move over to the mainland (or to Ireland, which being an EU state and largely an English speaking land, would probably be the easier option for most businesses).

Or (as for example MS are doing) they can create resource in the UK to run it as a division separate from the EU. Multinational corporation is multinational shocker.

The reality is this : just as Brexit means it will be very hard for the UK to impose it's idea of what is correct on any form of trade or business, it will be equally hard for the EU to impose it's idea.This is why everyone expects the negotiations will take so long. If one or other partry had obvious and overwhelming advantage, the deals would be done in minutes- 'We say what goes and this is what we say'. In all likelihood the resulting agreement will be a compromise, and compromises in the EU and UK tend to be towards what business wants, rather than what politicians want.

If the EU can force the USA to comply, especially in light of the Safe Harbor fiasco and the current court case between Microsoft and the US Justice Department, about whether the USDJ has jurisdiction in Ireland, then I don't think they will have many problems making the UK comply.

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Sun Oct 09, 2016 6:22 am
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MrStevenRogers wrote:
if you read jonbwfc post which i agree with you will find that the greater the EU try and control be it trade or data the larger the amount that will slip through their fingers. but we will wait and see as i believe a quick and hard exit is on the cards after such it will be down to the EU to agree our deal not the other way around ...

Given that the USA is in a much stronger position to bargain than the UK, I don't think the UK will be in a position to dictate terms, if the USA has to agree to store data following EU guidelines, even if it is held in the USA.

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Sun Oct 09, 2016 6:24 am
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big_D wrote:
if the USA has to agree to store data following EU guidelines, even if it is held in the USA.

It hasn't though has it? It's not like the USA has enacted laws equal to the EU's on data protection and everybody sticks to them. Some individual firms have, some have not, which is why we have the ongoing run of legal cases. And as I said, the noise about data on/from EU citizens being held in Russia and/or China is conspicuous by it's absence.

The EU data regulations are a good thing. But in the real world the fact they have to keep taking people to court about them rather suggests their observance is significantly less common than you seem to be assuming it is. Brexit is not going to make that better in fact it's probably going to make that worse.


Sun Oct 09, 2016 8:19 am
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big_D wrote:
MrStevenRogers wrote:
if you read jonbwfc post which i agree with you will find that the greater the EU try and control be it trade or data the larger the amount that will slip through their fingers. but we will wait and see as i believe a quick and hard exit is on the cards after such it will be down to the EU to agree our deal not the other way around ...

Given that the USA is in a much stronger position to bargain than the UK, I don't think the UK will be in a position to dictate terms, if the USA has to agree to store data following EU guidelines, even if it is held in the USA.


the UK will not dictate a deal that will be the preserve of the EU. and to be honest i believe its only going to be WTO rules only as that will bypass any EU dictates.
and just to add we the UK are in the driving seat on this not the EU as we can now trade without fear lett or hindrance outside the EU with anyone ...

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Sun Oct 09, 2016 5:40 pm
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I would think that, in any trade negotiation (for physical goods at least) you will eventually have to agree a minimum set of standards the goods will have to meet. If your internal standards exceed the minimum set by the other side then no problem, except perhaps your stuff will cost more. On the other hand, if your standards are lower than those of the market you are trying enter there will be a problem.

This was one of the issues with TTIP for example. If it was signed then it would have lowered EU standards to match those of the US rather than requiring the US to come up to EU standards. At the moment the EU appears unwilling to drop its standards so the deal is dead (fingers crossed anyway).

WTO rules aren't some magical panacea for trade. They set some ground rules but there still has to be negotiation and agreement of terms, all of which takes time. And at the moment the UK is pretty thin on the ground in terms of experienced trade negotiators as it's all been handled at the EU level.
Whatever deals we may end up with will take time, can't start until we've triggered article 50 and left (or we'll be subject to financial penalties for breach of EU law) and may not be that great because quite frankly we don't have the experience any more (or not enough of it anyway).

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Quote:
Retailers warn government of Brexit price rises

The British Retail Consortium (BRC) has warned that using World Trade Organization (WTO) rules will mean higher prices in the shops.

In a letter to the trade secretary, the BRC warns reverting to WTO rules would see tariffs on clothes from Bangladesh of 12% and those on meat of up to 27%.

The letter follows a similar one last week headed by the CBI.

[...]

The fall in the value of the pound since the referendum, a trend that accelerated last week to leave the pound at its lowest against the dollar for 31 years and at five-year lows against the euro, already means any goods brought in from outside the UK will cost more.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-37605642

Prices are going up already in some areas. Apple upped it prices recently, and it seems that some car manufacturers have upped their prices since the recent collapse in Sterling. http://europe.autonews.com/article/2016 ... ter-brexit

Sterling is currently enjoying an all time low - one of the worst performing currencies this year. Expect petrol to go up soon. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/business-37576875

Anyone thinking “we’ll be fine” is clearly living in their own little fantasy bubble.

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Mon Oct 10, 2016 12:04 pm
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paulzolo wrote:
Quote:
Retailers warn government of Brexit price rises

The British Retail Consortium (BRC) has warned that using World Trade Organization (WTO) rules will mean higher prices in the shops.

In a letter to the trade secretary, the BRC warns reverting to WTO rules would see tariffs on clothes from Bangladesh of 12% and those on meat of up to 27%.

The letter follows a similar one last week headed by the CBI.

[...]

The fall in the value of the pound since the referendum, a trend that accelerated last week to leave the pound at its lowest against the dollar for 31 years and at five-year lows against the euro, already means any goods brought in from outside the UK will cost more.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-37605642

Prices are going up already in some areas. Apple upped it prices recently, and it seems that some car manufacturers have upped their prices since the recent collapse in Sterling. http://europe.autonews.com/article/2016 ... ter-brexit

Sterling is currently enjoying an all time low - one of the worst performing currencies this year. Expect petrol to go up soon. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/business-37576875

Anyone thinking “we’ll be fine” is clearly living in their own little fantasy bubble.


i wouldn't worry about the level of the £ i would start being concerned about the state of the EU banks
as of fuel prices they are stacking and racking tankers by the hundreds out at sea ...

ps. are the % of tariffs EU tariffs imposed ? ...

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Mon Oct 10, 2016 10:33 pm
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Brexiters be like

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Tue Oct 11, 2016 7:41 am
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MrStevenRogers wrote:
i wouldn't worry about the level of the £ i would start being concerned about the state of the EU banks
as of fuel prices they are stacking and racking tankers by the hundreds out at sea ...

ps. are the % of tariffs EU tariffs imposed ? ...

Given that my company pension is in Sterling, I do worry about the level of the pound. The same for buying products, I just bought a new monitor. It cost me 100 quid more than it would have done a month ago!

At the moment there are no tariffs for the movement of goods within the EU, including the UK. After the exit from the EU, tariffs will need to be agreed upon.

Currently, for a UK business, all they have to worry about it the cost of delivery and ensure that they are VAT registered and they can sell their products anywhere in the EU - looking at the German Amazon portal, there are hundreds of UK businesses offering products there. (Some are a pain to deal with as a business, because they are not registered for VAT, which usually means we have to return the goods and look for another supplier; we quickly learnt to look at the sellers profile to see if they have a registered VAT number). The new rules (because of Amazon, Google, MS, Apple & Co. means that it is more difficult for smaller suppliers to operate, because they need to register for VAT in each country they sell products in - because the big names were using Luxembourg or Ireland as headquarters for sales, there was next to no VAT, which made the products much cheaper, so the EU are changing the rules and the VAT must be paid in the country where the buyer is registered.

After Brexit, they will need to deal with export licenses, customs regulations, import restrictions, CE certification for electronic goods etc.

As a good example for the problems, look at the cheap Chinese products, most are not CE certified and will be stopped by customs at the border and either destroyed or sent back to the seller - c't magazine did a test this month cheap vs. brand names and they tried to test the Xaomi Mi Book Air against a MacBook - pretty similar specifications, but the Mi Book was around 500€ and the MacBook 1400€, the MacBook Air around 1000€. Unfortunately the Mi Book is not officially imported into the EU, so they bought it on an international, Chinese-run sales portal. The customs declaration etc. were correctly filled out, but the package was sent from a known industrial estate in China, so it was held by customs and the staff at c't had to go to the custom's offices and open the goods in front of the customs official. Here, they simply looked for a CE-mark (manufacturers guarantee that the goods comply with EU regulations for electrical safety and radion smog), the US-Style power supply, the EU plug-adapter and the device itself were all missing the CE-mark, so the goods were sent back to China (the buyer can decide whether to have the goods destroyed by customs or have them sent back to the seller, with the latter option, there is a small chance that the seller will get their money back).

So, leaving the EU won't make any difference to the certification of goods, if they are to be sold in the EU, they must conform to those standards. If you are selling services to EU citizens, those services (including data security and data protection) must comply with EU standards. On top of that, there would then be the complications of export duties, extra paperwork etc. Of course, EU products going into the UK would also have to meet the UK standards, so it is a two-way street.

The question is, whether the UK would keep the EU-standards, like CE certification, to keep price rises to a minimum - if the device is certified for the whole EU to EU standards (which are pretty high and currently the requirement for the UK as well), it makes the product in the UK cheaper than if the product needs to be re-certified for the UK market and the costs of that certification applied just to products sold in the UK - this makes their price artificially higher than the rest of Europe, because the product has to be certified a second time for a relatively small market - spreading a 5-figure testing cost over customers in 27 countries, as opposed to just a single country makes a significant difference.

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Tue Oct 11, 2016 8:50 am
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The question is, whether the UK would keep the EU-standards, like CE certification, to keep price rises to a minimum - if the device is certified for the whole EU to EU standards (which are pretty high and currently the requirement for the UK as well), it makes the product in the UK cheaper than if the product needs to be re-certified for the UK market and the costs of that certification applied just to products sold in the UK - this makes their price artificially higher than the rest of Europe, because the product has to be certified a second time for a relatively small market - spreading a 5-figure testing cost over customers in 27 countries, as opposed to just a single country makes a significant difference.

er..your own example provides another possibility - don't care at all about the EU standard, ship laptops in from China and lots of things get cheaper/companies importing them make more profit. More risky of course, but I can't imagine a conservative administration bothers that much about consumer safety tbh. It's all horrible red tape y'know...


Tue Oct 11, 2016 10:38 am
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Hard Brexit will cost Treasury up to £66bn a year, ministers are told

Treasury coffers may take a £66bn annual hit if Britain goes for a hard Brexit, cabinet ministers have been warned.

Leaked government papers suggest that leaving the single market and switching to World Trade Organisation (WTO) rules would cause GDP to fall by up to 9.5% compared with staying in the EU.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... gle-market

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jonbwfc wrote:
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You beat me to it!

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Tue Oct 11, 2016 10:55 am
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"Hard Brexit will be ‘brilliant for Britain’, insists complete f*cking moron"

http://newsthump.com/2016/10/11/hard-br ... ing-moron/

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https://twitter.com/DavidAllenGreen/sta ... 1149555712

The salient bit:

"Imagine if remain had won by tiny margin & the govt went for "hard remain" - Schengen, Euro, multilingual signage. People would go [LIFTED]."

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