Ok, sorry, my bad. Google makes about a billion dollars a year (estimated, gross) from mobile search adds via Android. It intends to make many more as the market grows. Your language implies that this is a gamble with only a distant propsect of returns. I see it an investment, with excellent medium term prospects, in a market which they know is growing at pace and out of which they know exactly how to squeeze giant piles of cash. Now that other thing they do with ChromeOS, that seems like a much worse bet. I'd drown that baby right now.
Well I didn't see how this purchase has any effect either way on the Java issue, neither it appears do you. So I didn't mention it, and I don't particularly see why you did.
As for the rest, Microsoft takes a small number of dollars per phone, which all adds up to a tasty pile of cash (well nothing special on their terms, but I can assure you it dwarfs my income). So there must be gold in them thar hills. Now Google owns 9,000 new patents, plus thousands more pending. I would say they have some hopes of limiting their exposure to other parties' patents somehow, no? I'll admit though that I was a bit hasty in accusing MS of fear of suing, that would be a dark day for lawyers everywhere.
Please also bear in mind that I was responding to a specific question, your response seems to filter that context out. I do think this purchase gives them a an alternative to patent indemnification for their partners, by forcing new litigation through a single channel. Samsung will certainly be in a position to demand to see that Motorola has agreed to license something before they will. And Motorola can declare an interest in litigation against Samsung relating to Android.
I think Google can afford it, even after shelling out $12.5B, they have a significant pile of money to roll around in.
http://www.google.com/finance?fstype=bi&cid=694653In June Apple had $11billion less dollars in terms of cash and short term investments than Google did, so spending 12.5billion might take Google below Apple, depending on how it's financed, but not vastly below.
http://www.google.com/finance?fstype=bi&cid=694653What's in question is the future direction of those sales curves. If you can influence those it's worth shelling out a few billion here and there. Either in litigation to stifle development of competing products, or to buy a pile of patents to thwart that same action. If Apple can put the frighteners on competitors to keep their products looking shabbier, they can continue to increase sales of their premium products with the huge gross margins they like.
If Google wins, then the products that have grown Apple from a near bankrupt basket case to an insanely profitable mega brand will all commodotise faster. By the 2020s, they run the risk of becoming a niche player again like they did in the 1990s.
Of course, if this all blows up in Google's face, they could end up with Motorola as the only licensee for their smartphone OS. Apple will piss their pants laughing, Microsoft would presumably inherit the commodity smartphone OS market, and Bing would steal all their mobile search money, and Google would have to eke out a living as a patent troll, demanding fractions of a dollar per unit for everybody else's radios.