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Google's Moto move spells iPhone doom 
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So your supposition is that:
Google + Motorola = an effective blanket ban on patent lawsuits in the mobile marketplace?

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Tue Aug 16, 2011 7:48 pm
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ShockWaffle wrote:
That's the parent company which makes billions from Android (giving it both the motive and the means to defend itself more vigorously than its weaker partners),

What? Google makes nothing from Android. Not one red cent. It gives Android away, to anyone who is willing to sign up to the licencing terms. Google makes more than 95% of it's income from ad revenue, the vast portion of which comes from the 'desktop web'. It's just spent 12 billion dollars buying Motorola Mobile (a directionless firm with no profits and collapsing market share) for no obvious reason other than to defend Android. That pretty much amounts to Google's entire profit for the last two years. Android is a bet on the notion that at some point in the future the majority of media access (and therefore ad revenue) will be via mobile devices but as of right now Android is a cash sink for Google.

And anyway, your obvious contention that Apple and Microsoft are somehow scared of going after Android/Google is bunk. Microsoft aren't currently suing Google because the two firms previously settled out of court, with Google agreeing to pay a licence fee to MS for every Android phone sold (which is another item in the red ink column for Android, by the way). To the extent that last quarter Microsoft made more money from Android sales than it did from Windows Phone 7 sales. And it also doesn't account for the major oncoming issue in Android's future, which is the 'java suit' filed by Oracle which, if it comes to fruition in Oracle's favour, will stop any Android phones being made anywhere unless Google pays Oracle a hefty licence fee per device also.

Aside from all of that, Apple are vastly bigger than Google in terms of money in the bank. If Apple wanted to pay for an extended legal fight with Google simply as a nuisance act, they could certainly afford it. I suspect they haven't because, traditionally, it's easier to win legal suits based around concrete objects (like phones) than things like GUI 'look and feel', the most famous example of which being the Mac OS vs Windows suit from many years ago, which Apple lost of course.

Plus, in fact Apple don't want to kill Google. Or indeed vice versa. Apple don't directly compete with Google - Apple are a hardware company, Google are an ad company. Apple do directly compete with HTC and Samsung and Nokia and, indeed, (although to a very lesser degree) Motorola.

You want an obvious example of where the money is and who is earning from what? Compare how long it took Apple and Google to step in to defend their respective developer community from the Lodsys patent action. I doubt very much if Samsung & HTC will be relying on Google to ride to their rescue in any patent fight, believe me.

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Tue Aug 16, 2011 8:06 pm
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Yes but Android will give it a huge help in the less developed world as they are more likely to be seeing ads via phones more than computers. In fact many africans do a lot more with their phones than we do. In Kenya there is a whole system of local databases that enable rural farmers to sell to markets outside their region. These people many skip the desktop altogether. That is why Google want to secure this market. Over the next few decades it could be a very good investment if it can secure Androids dominance.

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Tue Aug 16, 2011 8:49 pm
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jonbwfc wrote:
ShockWaffle wrote:
That's the parent company which makes billions from Android (giving it both the motive and the means to defend itself more vigorously than its weaker partners),

What? Google makes nothing from Android. Not one red cent. It gives Android away, to anyone who is willing to sign up to the licencing terms. Google makes more than 95% of it's income from ad revenue, the vast portion of which comes from the 'desktop web'. It's just spent 12 billion dollars buying Motorola Mobile (a directionless firm with no profits and collapsing market share) for no obvious reason other than to defend Android. That pretty much amounts to Google's entire profit for the last two years. Android is a bet on the notion that at some point in the future the majority of media access (and therefore ad revenue) will be via mobile devices but as of right now Android is a cash sink for Google.

Ok, sorry, my bad. Google makes about a billion dollars a year (estimated, gross) from mobile search adds via Android. It intends to make many more as the market grows. Your language implies that this is a gamble with only a distant propsect of returns. I see it an investment, with excellent medium term prospects, in a market which they know is growing at pace and out of which they know exactly how to squeeze giant piles of cash. Now that other thing they do with ChromeOS, that seems like a much worse bet. I'd drown that baby right now.
jonbwfc wrote:
And anyway, your obvious contention that Apple and Microsoft are somehow scared of going after Android/Google is bunk. Microsoft aren't currently suing Google because the two firms previously settled out of court, with Google agreeing to pay a licence fee to MS for every Android phone sold (which is another item in the red ink column for Android, by the way). To the extent that last quarter Microsoft made more money from Android sales than it did from Windows Phone 7 sales. And it also doesn't account for the major oncoming issue in Android's future, which is the 'java suit' filed by Oracle which, if it comes to fruition in Oracle's favour, will stop any Android phones being made anywhere unless Google pays Oracle a hefty licence fee per device also.

Well I didn't see how this purchase has any effect either way on the Java issue, neither it appears do you. So I didn't mention it, and I don't particularly see why you did.

As for the rest, Microsoft takes a small number of dollars per phone, which all adds up to a tasty pile of cash (well nothing special on their terms, but I can assure you it dwarfs my income). So there must be gold in them thar hills. Now Google owns 9,000 new patents, plus thousands more pending. I would say they have some hopes of limiting their exposure to other parties' patents somehow, no? I'll admit though that I was a bit hasty in accusing MS of fear of suing, that would be a dark day for lawyers everywhere.

Please also bear in mind that I was responding to a specific question, your response seems to filter that context out. I do think this purchase gives them a an alternative to patent indemnification for their partners, by forcing new litigation through a single channel. Samsung will certainly be in a position to demand to see that Motorola has agreed to license something before they will. And Motorola can declare an interest in litigation against Samsung relating to Android.
jonbwfc wrote:
Aside from all of that, Apple are vastly bigger than Google in terms of money in the bank. If Apple wanted to pay for an extended legal fight with Google simply as a nuisance act, they could certainly afford it. I suspect they haven't because, traditionally, it's easier to win legal suits based around concrete objects (like phones) than things like GUI 'look and feel', the most famous example of which being the Mac OS vs Windows suit from many years ago, which Apple lost of course.
I think Google can afford it, even after shelling out $12.5B, they have a significant pile of money to roll around in.
http://www.google.com/finance?fstype=bi&cid=694653
In June Apple had $11billion less dollars in terms of cash and short term investments than Google did, so spending 12.5billion might take Google below Apple, depending on how it's financed, but not vastly below.
http://www.google.com/finance?fstype=bi&cid=694653

What's in question is the future direction of those sales curves. If you can influence those it's worth shelling out a few billion here and there. Either in litigation to stifle development of competing products, or to buy a pile of patents to thwart that same action. If Apple can put the frighteners on competitors to keep their products looking shabbier, they can continue to increase sales of their premium products with the huge gross margins they like.

If Google wins, then the products that have grown Apple from a near bankrupt basket case to an insanely profitable mega brand will all commodotise faster. By the 2020s, they run the risk of becoming a niche player again like they did in the 1990s.

Of course, if this all blows up in Google's face, they could end up with Motorola as the only licensee for their smartphone OS. Apple will piss their pants laughing, Microsoft would presumably inherit the commodity smartphone OS market, and Bing would steal all their mobile search money, and Google would have to eke out a living as a patent troll, demanding fractions of a dollar per unit for everybody else's radios.


Tue Aug 16, 2011 9:58 pm
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Google will still have desktop searches to fall back on. Mobile search could give it a future away from desktops. I would like to see it more of a three horse race rather than just a two horse race. Hopefully Microsoft can pull something out of the bag.

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Tue Aug 16, 2011 11:05 pm
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